Ayer Kuning By-Election: Low Turnout, Shifting Grounds, and Signals Beyond the Victory

KUALA LUMPUR, 27 April 2025 – The Center for Advanced Studies and Research (CASR) Malaysia extends its congratulations to Dr. Mohamad Yusri Bakir of Barisan Nasional (BN) on securing victory in the N48 Ayer Kuning by-election held on 26 April 2025.

BN-UMNO successfully retained the seat with a majority of 5,006 votes in a three-cornered contest against Perikatan Nasional (PN)’s Abd Muhaimin Malek and Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM)’s Bawani KS, who secured 6,059 and 1,106 votes respectively. However, beyond the headline result, CASR underscores that the outcome of this by-election reflects deeper structural signals about the state of Malaysian politics—particularly voter engagement and sentiment—that warrant serious attention from both the government and opposition.

Voter Apathy: A Growing Structural Problem

The most striking signal from Ayer Kuning is the significant decline in voter turnout—from 75% in the 15th General Election (GE15) to 58% in this by-election. This is not an isolated case. Data across 12 by-elections held from December 2022 to April 2025 reveals a consistent nationwide downward trend in voter turnout. The average turnout for these by-elections has now settled at around 62%, down from the pre-by-election average of 74%.

The voter turnout charts (referenced below) clearly illustrate that Ayer Kuning’s turnout rate mirrors the national by-election average, positioning it within a worrying pattern of political disengagement and voter fatigue. Several by-elections, including Pulai, Jepak, Simpang Jeram, and Mahkota, experienced even steeper declines—falling below 60%, with some constituencies dipping under 50%. The only notable exception remains Nenggiri, where turnout increased slightly.

This erosion of voter participation suggests a crisis of political confidence across the board. Whether due to disillusionment with the available political choices, lack of compelling narratives, or a perception that by-elections carry little consequence, the message from the ground is clear: voter enthusiasm is fading.

Ground Shifts and Fragmentation in Ayer Kuning

While BN-UMNO successfully defended its traditional strongholds such as Kampung Sungai Kurong, Banir, Kampung Simpang Tiga, Sungai Lesong, and Temoh Stesyen, its ability to achieve overwhelming majorities (>70%) even in former PH-majority or plurality areas—such as Kampung Coldstream, Sungai Keroh, Ayer Kuning Selatan, and Banir Utara—indicates subtle but important shifts in voter alignment. However, the slim margin of under 5% in Tapah Road Timor remains an indicator of lingering competitiveness and local volatility, particularly in areas that had previously leaned towards PH.

PN’s strategy to rally the Malay vote—leveraging the pig farm controversy and PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang’s controversial framing that voting was “more important than going on the haj”—failed to significantly break into BN territory. This suggests that such emotionally charged, ethno-religious narratives may have reached their limits of effectiveness, at least in this constituency.

Meanwhile, PSM’s vote share quietly doubled from 2.5% in GE15 to approximately 6% in this by-election. Though still below the deposit-retention threshold, the increase reflects either a growing protest vote or the slow emergence of a third-force alternative in semi-urban constituencies. Whether this marks the beginning of a sustained trajectory or simply a temporary expression of discontent remains an open question—but one that deserves close observation.

What Ayer Kuning Tells Us About the Road Ahead

The Ayer Kuning by-election confirms a set of troubling yet important patterns:

1. Political fatigue is real and growing. The consistent decline in by-election turnout signals that large segments of the electorate are tuning out.

2. Traditional strongholds remain intact, but with signs of ground shifts. While BN holds the line, cracks in certain areas suggest potential vulnerabilities if challengers can offer stronger engagement or narratives.

3. PAS and PN's ethno-religious playbook may be facing diminishing returns.

4. Alternative voices like PSM, though small, are finding space to grow.

The broader legitimacy of Malaysia’s electoral process may suffer if the downward turnout trend continues unchecked.

CASR calls on all political parties to move beyond machinery-driven campaigns and transactional politics. The electorate is signaling a need for authentic engagement, fresh leadership, and a politics that speaks not only to identity but to real issues and aspirations.

The question is no longer just about who wins—but how many still care enough to show up.

End