Sabah State Elections 2025: Rewriting Power, Identity, and the Future of Autonomy

Sabah state election has evolved into a referendum on autonomy, identity, and the longstanding desire for political self-determination. With 37 seats required to form government and 49 seats needed for a powerful two-thirds mandate, the outcome will shape not only the composition of the next administration but also Sabah’s leverage in negotiating rights, resources, and the implementation of Malaysia Agreement (MA63).

Two weeks into the campaign, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Parti Warisan Sabah are visibly ahead with narrative dominance, emotional resonance, and organisational reach marking their lead. Micro-parties and independents are gaining attention but remain structurally limited as their influence lies not in forming government but in shaping coalition arithmetic. Their value is transactional but real potential “kingmakers” or symbolic backbenchers who carry the hopes of hyper-local constituencies.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN), however, are weighed down by an entrenched framing of “Parti Malaya”. This label reflects more than political branding as it captures Sabah’s accumulated frustrations, anxieties over identity, and the persistent belief that peninsular parties prioritise federal agendas over local needs. PH and BN can win seats, but their relevance will be dictated by alliances, power-sharing deals, and voters’ willingness to tolerate their presence in a political culture that increasingly prioritises “Sabah First.”

Scenario 1: A GRS–PH–BN Simple Majority - Cooperation with Costs

If results are tight, a GRS–PH–BN configuration becomes the most immediate pathway to forming government. This arrangement provides greater federal-state coordination and continued administrative relevance for PH and BN while enabling GRS to anchor the state leadership. However, it risks legitimacy erosion for former Chief Minister Hajiji (if he is given the mandate to return as Chief Minister) and feeds the perception that Sabah remains tethered to external influence. The narrative of shared governance may be administratively efficient but emotionally unsatisfying for Sabahans seeking a clean, Sabah-led mandate.

This scenario is stable on paper but fragile in symbolism: Sabah-led, but not Sabah-owned.

Scenario 2: GRS Govern Alone - A Mandate Without Interference

Should GRS secure enough seats to govern independently, the state enters a different psychological terrain. A solo GRS government gives the coalition unambiguous legitimacy and freedom from peninsular dependency. Hajiji gains the authority to govern without an overshadowing federal presence, and Sabahans gain the reassurance of a state leadership that is unmistakably theirs. The emotional payoff here is significant - local pride, identity clarity, autonomy in practice.

This trajectory mirrors Sarawak’s model and strengthens Sabah’s hand in federal negotiations. The narrative becomes - Sabah decides, Sabah leads.

Scenario 3: A Sabah-Only Coalition — The Rise of a Sabah Pact

The most transformative scenario envisions GRS constructing a “Sabah-only” coalition by aligning with micro-parties and independents - for example STAR, KDM, UPKO, PCS, LDP, PBS factions, local independents - forming a state government devoid of PH and BN. Such an arrangement would create a Gabungan Party Sarawak (GPS)-styled Sabah pact, projecting unity, authenticity, and complete ownership of Sabah’s political destiny.

A state cabinet composed only of Sabah-based parties sends a powerful message – that is, true autonomy, Sabah for Sabahans, self-determined governance. This formation positions Sabah as an equal partner to Putrajaya, negotiating state rights with the strength of a collective Sabah voice rather than as extensions of federal coalitions. It also directly confronts the painful and persistent debate over Sabah’s status, signalling a shift toward treating Sabah not merely as a state but as a distinct region within the federation and as one whose identity, history and rights warrant recognition and respect beyond the conventional federal model.

For PH and BN, this requires a strategic retreat, stepping aside at the state level while still receiving the parliamentary support they need from Sabah MPs at the federal level. The political choreography is delicate with a quiet exchange of influence where federal stability is maintained while state autonomy is respected. It may upset grassroots sentiment in PH and BN, but it is not an impossible arrangement.

Warisan, however, sits outside this equation. Shafie Apdal’s possible condition for participation - Chief Minister or nothing is incompatible with GRS leadership. This makes Warisan’s entry into a Sabah-only pact improbable. Yet, if the political landscape ever shifted toward a GRS-Warisan rapprochement, the result would be a grand Sabah coalition capable of dominating state politics for a generation.

Beyond the Scenarios: A Turning Point for Sabah’s Political Identity

Whichever scenario materialises, this election offers Sabah’s political actors an opportunity to reconfigure state politics around autonomy, unity, and strategic bargaining power. The core question is whether Sabah can emulate the Sarawak model – one with cohesive leadership, controlled political space, strong negotiating position without succumbing to factionalism and ego-driven rivalries.

For decades, Sabah’s political potential has been undermined by fragmentation and personality clashes. Now, the possibility of a unified Sabah administration, whether GRS-led alone or through a Sabah-only pact would create a moment for the state to reclaim agency over its own affairs. The dream of a politically confident Sabah that negotiates with Putrajaya as an equal partner is within reach.

The emotional current among Sabahans is clear - self-respect, state dignity, better governance, and for a future shaped by Sabahans. This election offers the structural pathway to realise those aspirations but provided leaders choose cooperation over conflict.

If Sabah’s political actors set aside rivalry and ambition long enough to build a shared vision, the state can finally move onto a stable, autonomous, Sarawak-style development trajectory. The election is not just a contest for power, but it is a crossroads where Sabah can redefine its identity, its political compact, and its long-term relationship with the federation.

The moment is here. Whether Sabah rises to it will determine its political and economic trajectory for the next decade. Kat W. Wong is an independent analyst in politics, economics and regional affairs in Asia. Based in Kuala Lumpur, she has over 25 years of experience in government, policy, and political affairs, with a long track record of engagement across key stakeholders in Malaysia, ASEAN, and the wider Indo-Pacific. She can be contacted at katwongmy@outlook.com.