by Professor Dr Salawati Mat Basir & Kat W. Wong As the ten-year anniversary of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) award under Annex VII of United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) approaches in July 2026, the diplomatic atmosphere in Southeast Asia is charged with anticipation and to some, anxiety. The Philippines which currently holds the 2026 chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) naturally seeks to leverage this mileston

柔佛州选提名结束，战局正式进入攻防。 这一届柔佛州选共有172名候选人角逐56个州议席。国阵和希盟全面上阵56席，国盟只竞逐33席，同心党上阵15席，睦达党只派4人出战，另有社会主义党（PSM）、原住民党（Parti Orang Asli Malaysia）和独立人士加入战局。 56席之中，14席是一对一，27席是三角战，12席是四角战，3席是五角战。 柔佛州选实际主轴是国阵与希盟的正面对决。国盟退到侧翼，睦达党和同心党则在部分城市与混合选区制造变量。 对国阵而言相对有利，国阵在2022年柔佛州选赢下40席，掌握三分之二多数。如今它再次全线上阵，州务大臣翁哈菲兹继续成为国阵的海报男孩，主打州政绩、稳定治理和州政府延续性。相比之下，希盟虽然同样全线上阵，却缺少一个足够鲜明的州级领军人物，竞选叙事仍依赖全国领袖拉动声量。 国盟处境微妙，只竞逐33席，已经透露国盟并非以全面夺权的姿态加入这场选战。更重要的是，伊党和土团虽然共用国盟标志，却分开操作竞选机器。这会削弱国盟作为替代政府的整体感。对国盟来说，这一仗更像是选择性突围，而不是全面攻城。 投票率定生

Key Takeaways: 1. Barisan Nasional has a good chance of retaining majority seats in the state elections if it is held in the next 2-3 months, although lower turnout could be a challenge for contesting parties. 2. Chinese community in Johor are generally pleased with the BN state government and the leadership of Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz. They have an impression that DAP is part of government even though the party does not have a role in the state administration. 3. General di